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kellyCriterionBinary

Full Kelly for binary outcome, netOdds = net profit per unit staked when you win.

kellyCriterionBinary(winProbability: number, netOdds: number): number

Import

const poker = require('poker-calculations');

ESM (Node):

import { createRequire } from 'module';
const require = createRequire(import.meta.url);
const poker = require('poker-calculations');

When to use

Size +EV binary bets with the Kelly fraction (p·b − (1−p)) / b where b is net odds received on a winning unit stake. Education tools and bankroll simulators use this before applying fractional Kelly discipline.

How to use

const winProb = 0.55;
const netOdds = 1.0; // even money: win 1 per 1 staked

const f = poker.kellyCriterionBinary(winProb, netOdds);
console.log('Kelly fraction of bankroll:', f); // 0.1

// 2:1 payout → netOdds = 2
console.log(poker.kellyCriterionBinary(0.4, 2));

See also

riskOfRuinDiffusionApprox · chubukovSymmetricJamEv